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目的筛选山东省干旱敏感的传染性疾病,为旱期传染病预防控制提供科学依据。方法比较山东省威海、济宁、临沂、枣庄干旱年与非干旱年甲乙类法定传染病的发病率,对上述地区及所辖县1997—1999年标准化降水指数(SPI)与同期、滞后1~3月的甲乙类法定传染病月发病率进行相关分析。结果干旱年菌痢、麻疹、猩红热、肺结核、出血热、肝炎(总)、乙肝发病率高于非干旱年。SPI在济宁地区与当月菌痢月发病率相关系数最大(rs=-0.392,P=0.018);SPI在威海地区与滞后3月的肾综合征出血热月发病率相关系数最大(rs=-0.552,P<0.001),而临沂、济宁、枣庄SPI分别与当月(rs=0.430,P=0.009)、滞后1月(rs=0.384,P=0.021)、当月的发病率(rs=0.445,P=0.007)关系最为密切;SPI在枣庄、临沂地区分别与滞后3月(rs=0.355,P=0.034)、滞后1月的肺结核月发病率(rs=0.469,P=0.004)关系最为密切。基于县级的SPI与菌痢、麻疹月发病率呈负相关,而猩红热、肺结核、肾综合征出血热、肝炎(总)、乙肝中,SPI与单病种月发病率相关方向在不同县不完全一致。结论山东省甲乙类法定传染病中菌痢、麻疹、猩红热、肺结核、肾综合征出血热、肝炎(总)、乙肝的发病可能与干旱有关,其中菌疾、麻疹的发病率与干旱程度呈正相关。
Objective To screen drought-sensitive infectious diseases in Shandong Province and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases in the dry season. Methods The incidence rates of notifiable infectious diseases of Class A and B were compared between Weihai, Jining, Linyi and Zaozhuang in Shandong Province during the dry and non-drought years. The standardized precipitation index (1997 ~ 1999) and the lag between 1 and 3 Month A statutory infectious diseases on the monthly incidence of related analysis. Results Dairy bacillary bacillary dysentery, measles, scarlet fever, tuberculosis, hemorrhagic fever, hepatitis (total), hepatitis B incidence was higher than non-dry years. SPI had the highest correlation coefficient with monthly incidence of dysentery dysentery in Jining (rs = -0.392, P = 0.018). SPI had the highest monthly incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in lag time in Weihai (rs = -0.552 (Rs = 0.430, P = 0.009), lag of January (rs = 0.384, P = 0.021), the incidence of the month (rs = 0.445, P = 0.007). SPI had the closest relationship with lagged March (rs = 0.355, P = 0.034) and monthly incidence of tuberculosis in January (rs = 0.469, P = 0.004) in Zaozhuang and Linyi. There was a negative correlation between the monthly incidence of measles and bacillary dysentery based on the county-level SPI, while the incidence rates of scarlet fever, tuberculosis, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, hepatitis (total), hepatitis B and SPI with single disease in different counties Exactly the same. Conclusion The incidence of bacillary dysentery, measles, scarlet fever, tuberculosis, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, hepatitis (total) and hepatitis B in A and B infectious diseases in Shandong Province may be related to drought. The incidence of bacteriosis and measles is positively correlated with the degree of drought. .