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“三江”地区是地质灾害强发区,又是资源富集区和环境重点保护区。为了实现对区内地质灾害危险性的定量或定量评价,根据该区“崩、滑、流”地质灾害的发育机制-地形地貌的改造和演化过程中各种外动力地质作用的动力机制,将促进地质灾害发育的各类影响因子总和-动力势与减缓地质灾害发育的各类影响因子总和-抗力势之间的差值作为地质灾害发育动力强度指数,并且用于量化评价地质灾害危险性程度。通过41个典型地质灾害点的调查分析对各类影响因子赋值,采用多元线性回归方法求解出的地质灾害发育强度指数与影响因子之间的线性方程,作为地质灾害危险性量化评价模型。采用该线性模型简要计算了“三江”并流区典型区段的地质灾害发育强度指数,并通指数的大小为依据统一划分地质灾害危险性程度,避免了人为分级和分区的随意性。
“Sanjiang ” area is a strong disaster-prone area of geological disasters, but also a resource-rich area and the environment key protected areas. In order to achieve the quantitative or quantitative assessment of the risk of geological disasters in the area, according to the development mechanism of geological disasters in the area such as collapse, slip and flow, the dynamic mechanism of various external-dynamic geologic effects during the process of the transformation and evolution of topography and geomorphology , The difference between the sum of all kinds of factors that promote the development of geological disasters - the dynamic potential and the sum of all kinds of influencing factors for slowing down the development of geological disasters - is regarded as the index of dynamic development of geological disasters and used to quantify the risk of geological disasters Sexuality. Based on the investigation and analysis of 41 typical geological disasters, various kinds of influencing factors were assigned, and the linear equation between the index and the influencing factors of the degree of geological hazards developed by multivariate linear regression was used as the quantitative evaluation model of geological hazard risk. The linear model was used to calculate the index of the development of geological disasters in the typical section of the “Sanjiang” co-current area. The size of the general index is based on the unified classification of geological hazards and avoids the arbitrariness of artificial classification and zoning.