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近期宏观政策密集出台:4万亿的投资计划、四季度1000亿的新增投资工作和大幅下调利率,旨在刺激投资、拉动经济增长。但我们认为这些积极政策只能避免固定资产投资和GDP增速大幅下降的局面,无法改变宏观经济进入下行周期,需求放缓导致企业业绩增速明显下降的现实。故短期内依然无法看到市场出现趋势性的反转,更有可能的是响应政策刺激而引发的阶段性反弹。
The recent macroeconomic policies are promulgated: 4 trillion investment plans, 100 billion new investment projects in the fourth quarter and sharply lower interest rates in order to stimulate investment and stimulate economic growth. However, we think these positive policies can only avoid a sharp decline in fixed asset investment and GDP growth, fail to change the macroeconomy into the downward cycle and the slowdown in demand resulting in a marked decline in the growth rate of business performance. It is still impossible to see a reversal of the market trend in the short term and more likely a phased rebound in response to policy stimulus.