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讨论现有理论的误导和新的可靠性模型——等劣化模型取得的新进展。通过对“浴盆”曲线、Morse和Barbw－Hunter的维修更新理论及维修更新策略Ⅱ的深入分析和现场调查，指出以修后如新假设为理论基础是导致等长大修或预修时间间隔和系统具有稳态可用度等误导性结论的根源。等劣化模型有效地克服了以上缺陷。
Discuss the misleading existing theories and the new reliability model - the new progress made in the degradation model. Through the in-depth analysis and site investigation of “Bathtub” curve, Morse and Barbw-Hunter’s maintenance renewal theory and maintenance update strategyⅡ, it is pointed out that taking the new hypothesis as the theoretical basis is the result of the isometric overhaul or prefabricated time interval and system With steady-state availability and other misleading conclusions of the root causes. Such deteriorating models effectively overcome the above shortcomings.