论文部分内容阅读
利用宇如聪等１９９５年建立的北极区域冰洋耦合模式，以１９６６～１９９１年期间逐月的月平均实测海平面气温和气压场为强迫场，模拟了上述２６年间北极海冰的时间演变和空间分布，着重分析了大西洋及欧洲沿岸一侧的巴伦支海和格陵兰海的海冰状况，并与目前能够得到的北极海冰密集度观测资料做了对比，结果表明：（１）模式对巴伦支海海冰年际变化的模拟是比较成功的，表现在不仅模拟的１９６９～１９７９和１９７９～１９８７这两个时段的主要变化趋势和观测事实比较一致，而且模拟出了１９７９和１９８４这两个多冰和少冰的极端年份。模拟的主要年际变化出现在巴伦支海东部和中部海域，这一点同观测事实是一致的，不过模拟的年际变化偏于新地岛西侧，而观测结果则更靠近挪威沿岸。（２）模式未能在格陵兰海模拟出与观测一致的年际变化。根据巴伦支海和格陵兰海模拟结果的对比有理由推测：巴伦支海的海冰可能更多地受到热力学过程的控制，而动力学因子对格陵兰海海冰的作用则不可忽视。（３）模拟和观测的巴伦支海和格陵兰海海冰的季节循环均滞后于气温的季节循环，但模拟结果滞后的时间更长，事实上模拟的冬季海冰极值比观测滞后１～２个月，而夏季无冰期比观测结果长两个月以上，这是模式需要改?
By means of the ice-ocean coupling model in the Arctic region established by Yu Rucong et al. In 1995, monthly mean sea level air temperature and pressure field measured from month to month from 1966 to 1991 were used as forced fields to simulate the time evolution of Arctic sea ice during the above 26 years And spatial distribution, the paper analyzes the sea ice conditions in the Barents Sea and the Greenland Sea on the Atlantic and European coasts side by side, and compares it with the currently available Arctic ice density observation data. The results show that: (1) The simulation of the interannual variation of the sea ice in the Barents Sea is quite successful. It shows that not only the major trends in 1969-1979 and 1979-1987, but also the observations of 1979 and 1984 These two more years of ice and ice less extreme. The main interannual variation of the simulations occurred in the eastern and central Barents Sea, which is consistent with the observation. However, the simulated interannual variation is on the west side of the island and the observation is closer to the Norwegian coast. (2) The model failed to model the interannual variability consistent with the observations in the Greenland. Based on the comparison of the simulated results from the Barents Sea and the Greenland Sea, it is reasonable to speculate that the sea ice in the Barents Sea may be more controlled by the thermodynamic processes that can not be neglected. (3) The simulated and observed seasonal cycles of sea ice in the Barents Sea and Greenland Sea lag behind the seasonal cycle of temperature, but the simulation results lag longer, in fact, the simulated winter sea ice extreme lags 1 ~ 2 months, while the summer ice-free period longer than the observed results more than two months, which is the model needs to be changed?