论文部分内容阅读
为了快速准确地对遭受地震影响的土坝工程的破坏状态进行评估,以土坝震害经验统计判断模型为基础,选取了更为合理的土坝震害影响因素,采用最小二乘法重新对土坝震害数据资料进行回归分析,得到了各震害影响因素在不同条件下的回归系数取值,从而建立了一个改进的土坝震害经验统计判断模型。与原模型相比,改进模型既剔除了不合理的震害影响因子,同时又使回归模型的预测准确度得到提高,其相关系数为0.908,标准差为0.459,均比原模型要好。采用两种模型对汶川地震中遭到破坏的47座土坝进行震害评估,并与实际震害进行了对比分析,初步验证了改进模型的可靠性。
In order to evaluate the damage status of earth dam project affected by the earthquake quickly and accurately, based on the empirical statistical judgment model of earth dam damage experience, the more reasonable earth dam damage factors are selected and the least squares method is used to re-test the earth dam. Regression analysis of dam damage data, obtained the regression coefficients of the factors affecting the earthquake damage under different conditions, and thus established an improved empirical statistical judgment model of earth dam damage. Compared with the original model, the improved model not only eliminates the unreasonable factor of earthquake damage, but also improves the prediction accuracy of the regression model. The correlation coefficient is 0.908, and the standard deviation is 0.459, which is better than the original model. Two models are used to evaluate the damage of 47 earth-rock dams damaged by the Wenchuan earthquake. Compared with the actual damage, the reliability of the improved model is preliminarily verified.