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针对较长产量序列时序可比性差、产量预报方程回归误差率较高、气象产量序列不符合正态分布等问题，提出了产量阶段概念。认为产量序列是由一个个相对稳定变化着的产量阶段组成，两个产量阶段之间存在跳跃现象，宜分阶段处理。并提出用最优分割法划分产量阶段，结合周期分析结果确定产量阶段段数。最后，用划分产量阶段的方法，建立了河南省冬小麦产量预报方程，并划分了河南省夏玉米丰、平、歉产量年型
In view of the problems of poor comparability of time series of long production series, high regression error rate of production forecast equation and non-conformity of meteorological production series, the concept of production stage was proposed. It is considered that the yield series consists of a relatively stable production phase and there is a jump between the two production phases and should be handled in stages. It is proposed that the optimal segmentation method should be used to separate the production phases and the period analysis results to determine the number of production phases. Finally, with the method of dividing the yield stage, the forecasting equation of winter wheat in Henan Province was established and the annual yield of summer maize