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通过对 1989～ 1997年湖北省汉川市和老河口市的疟疾疫情资料分析 ,求出逐月及年疟疾病例之总合 ,并分别计算出逐月发病均数和标准差 ,以均数加标准差为标准绘出曲线 ,以此双曲线作为标准曲线与既往各年逐月的实际发病曲线相比较 ,找出各月疟疾上升的突破点。结果显示 ,平均数加两个标准差是疟疾上升的预警指标 ,此指标的准确性为 95 %。一般而言 ,湖北省回升预警点出现在每年的 4～ 5月 ,出现突破预警后需立即进行流行病学分析 ,并制定出针对性的防治对策 ,将疟疾控制在回升之初
Through the analysis of the malaria epidemic data of Hanchuan and Laohekou in 1989-1997, the sum of monthly malaria cases and annual malaria cases were calculated, and the mean and standard deviation of monthly malaria incidence were calculated. Standard deviation as the standard to draw the curve, the hyperbolic curve as the standard curve with the past months the actual incidence curve compared to find out the monthly rise in malaria breakthrough. The results show that the mean plus two standard deviations is an early warning indicator of malaria rise, the accuracy of this indicator was 95%. Generally speaking, the warning point for the rise of Hubei Province appears from April to May each year. Epidemiological analysis should be carried out immediately after a breakthrough warning and a targeted prevention and control strategy should be formulated to control malaria at the beginning of the recovery