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未来很有可能在房地产市场会出现一些大的纠正性、调整性的动作。人民币会继续贬值,但是我并不认为会发生货币危机。想要了解现在中国的经济状况,首先得看一下中国的资产负债表。在过去几年里,中国的经济增速放慢,并且越来越多地依靠凯恩斯主义,希望能够刺激投资。在2008年全球金融危机之后,中国政府推出了4万亿的刺激计划,希望能够将经济带出困境,所以在基础设施和大项目上投入了大量的资金。央行也增加了货币供应量,商业银行大量放贷,尤其是放给央企、国企,结果中国的资产负债表不断扩大。
The future is likely to appear in the real estate market some major corrective, regulatory action. RMB will continue to depreciate, but I do not think there will be a currency crisis. To understand the current economic situation in China, you must first look at China’s balance sheet. In the past few years, China’s economic growth has slowed down and has increasingly relied on Keynesianism in the hope of stimulating investment. After the global financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese government launched a 4 trillion stimulus package that hoping to bring the economy out of its predicament so that it invested heavily in infrastructure and large projects. The central bank also increased the money supply, commercial banks lending a large amount, especially to the central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, as a result China’s balance sheet expanded.