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在2002-2005年苜蓿褐斑病预测模型建立的基础上,补充2006-2008年3年苜蓿褐斑病发生规律的系统调查数据,结合日均温、降雨量、湿度及天敌等因子,对南部山区苜蓿褐斑病进行相关因子和多元逐步回归分析,确定影响苜蓿褐斑病发生的关键因子[1],改进和完善苜蓿主要病虫害的预测模型,建立了苜蓿褐斑病预测模型y:=2.758x3-171.334。所建立的回归模型显著性检验极为显著,历史拟合率均为100%,说明建立预测预报的方法是准确的,精度高且简便易行,可在实际生产中应用。
Based on the establishment of the predictive model of alfalfa leaf spot in 2002-2005, the data of systematic investigation on the occurrence of alfalfa leaf spot in the three years from 2006 to 2008 were supplemented. Based on the factors such as daily average temperature, rainfall, humidity and natural enemies, The related factors and multivariate stepwise regression analysis of alfalfa leaf spot in mountainous area were carried out to determine the key factors affecting the occurrence of alfalfa leaf brown spot disease [1], to improve and perfect the prediction model of the main diseases and insect pests of alfalfa, and to establish the forecast model of alfalfa leaf spot disease: 2.758 x3-171.334. The established regression model was significantly significant test, the history of the rate of 100%, indicating that the establishment of prediction and forecasting method is accurate, accurate and easy to use, can be used in the actual production.