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航空公司的旅客流量受宏观经济、季节性、竞争等诸多因素的影响,具有显著的非线性和非平稳性。不同于以往研究,本文提出应用经验模态分解(简称EMD)方法对航空公司的旅客流量进行分析。文中航空公司的旅客流量序列被分解为受宏观经济驱动的趋势项、受季节性因素影响的低频部分和受竞争等不确定性因素影响的高频部分。研究表明,EMD方法能有效地分解旅客流量序列,而且相比传统的线性预测模型,经过EMD分解的预测方法能得到更高的预测精度。
Airline passenger traffic by the macroeconomic, seasonal, competition and many other factors, with significant nonlinear and non-stationary. Different from the previous studies, this paper proposes the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to analyze the passenger traffic of airlines. In the paper, the passenger flow series of airlines are decomposed into macroeconomic-driven trend items, low-frequency components affected by seasonal factors and high-frequency components affected by uncertainties such as competition. The results show that the EMD method can effectively decompose the passenger flow sequence, and the prediction accuracy of the EMD method can be higher than that of the traditional linear prediction model.