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结合宜宾以上长江流域1956─2000年降水、水资源量序列及监测资料,运用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法、累积距平法以及Morlet小波变换等方法进行了分析。结果表明:调水区近45年来降水除了青衣江与岷江流域有下降趋势之外,其他各流域的降水变化趋势均不明显,而整个流域的水资源变化均没有明显的上升或下降趋势。这与降水的变化趋势基本一致,从而大范围地分析了南水北调西线工程调水区水资源的变化趋势。
Based on the precipitation, water resources sequence and monitoring data from 1956 to 2000 in the Yangtze River valley above Yibin, linear propensity estimation method, Mann-Kendall rank correlation test, cumulative distance method and Morlet wavelet transform were used to analyze the data. The results show that except for the downward trend of Qingyi River and Minjiang River, the precipitation in the water diversion areas has no obvious trend in the past 45 years, while the change of water resources in the whole basin has no obvious upward or downward trend. This is consistent with the changing trend of precipitation, so that the trend of water resources in the water diversion area of the Western Route of South-North Water Diversion Project is extensively analyzed.