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海外石油投资具有高投入、高风险的特点,对投资对象进行风险评价具有重要的参考价值和现实意义。采用突变级数评价法进我国石油企业非洲投资风险评价,该方法避免了确定权重主观性较大的缺陷,且计算过程相对简便。选择具有较强资源基础的利比亚、尼日利亚、安哥拉、阿尔及利亚、苏丹、加蓬、赤道几内亚等7个非洲国家作为评价对象;选取资源开发程度、政治因素、经济贸易因素、技术设施条件4个评价指标;构建了突变级数评价的数学模型。计算结果表明:我国石油企业对非洲7个国家投资的风险排序由小到大为利比亚、安哥拉、尼日利亚、阿尔及利亚、苏丹、加蓬、赤道几内亚。依据模型进一步分析出了影响我国对各国投资风险的主要因素,建议对资源量少的国家进行中短期投资,加大对资源国局势预测力度,加强与资源国经济贸易,加强我国石油基础设施建设。
Overseas investment in petroleum is characterized by high input and high risk. It is of important reference value and practical significance for risk assessment of investors. The method of mutation series evaluation is applied to evaluate the investment risk of African oil companies in Africa. This method avoids the defect of determining subjectivity of weights and the calculation process is relatively simple. Seven African countries such as Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Sudan, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea with strong resource base were selected as evaluation objects. Four evaluation indexes of resource development level, political factors, economic and trade factors and technical facilities conditions were selected. A mathematical model for the evaluation of the mutation series was constructed. The calculation results show that the risks of China’s oil companies investing in seven African countries are as follows: Libya, Angola, Nigeria, Algeria, Sudan, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. Based on the model, we further analyze the main factors that affect China’s investment risk to all countries. We suggest short-term and medium-term investment in countries with small resources, intensify the prediction of the situation in resource-based countries, strengthen economic and trade relations with resource-based countries, and strengthen the construction of China’s oil infrastructure .