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以1961—2010年讨赖河山区气温、降水和径流资料为基础,综合运用线性趋势、距平百分比、重标极差、Mann-Kendall突变检测、小波变换和多元线性回归等多种数理分析方法,研究了讨赖河山区径流的年内和年际变化规律,并探讨了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:径流年内分配极不均匀且呈单峰型分布,汛期径流占年径流的比重为62.11%。径流经历了“丰-枯-丰-枯”4次波动,在1984年发生由多到少的显著性突变,但整体呈不显著减少趋势且具有持久性。径流在22年准周期上振荡最为明显,经历了“少-多-少-多-少-多-少”7次循环交替,2010—2015年径流可能再次偏多。近50年来山区气温呈“稳定波动-快速上升”变化,降水量呈显著增加趋势,但山区降水转化为径流的比例减少。气温升高和降水量增加引起的蒸散发增加,同时气候变化和人类活动共同作用下的地表覆盖类型的变化均对径流变化产生影响。
Based on the data of temperature, precipitation and runoff from 1961 to 2010 in the mountainous areas of the Houlai River, a series of mathematical analysis methods, such as linear trend, anomalous percentage deviation, extreme standard deviation, Mann-Kendall mutation detection, wavelet transform and multivariate linear regression, , Studied the annual and interannual variability of runoff in the Qaola River and discussed the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff. The results showed that the distribution of runoff during the year was extremely uneven and unimodal. The proportion of flood runoff to annual runoff was 62.11%. The runoff experienced four fluctuations of “Feng - dry - abundance - dry ” in 1984, from more to less significant mutations, but overall there was no significant reduction trend and persistence. The runoff is most obviously oscillated over the 22-year quasiperime and experienced seven cycles of “less-more-less-more-less-more-less”. The runoff may be more in 2010-2015. In the recent 50 years, the temperature in mountainous area showed a “stable fluctuation-rapid increase”, and the precipitation showed a significant increase trend, but the proportion of mountain precipitation into runoff decreased. Evapotranspiration caused by the increase of temperature and precipitation increase, meanwhile, the changes of the types of land cover under the combined action of climate change and human activities have an impact on the runoff change.