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应用在武汉取得的1964—1985年油菜病毒病序列资料,在电算机上分析了病害流行的周期性和自相关关系。通过方差分析找出了两个病害流行周期,第一周期为6年周期,第二周期为9年周期。两个周期叠加对病害流行起着决定性作用。据此可用它们对未来若干年的病害发生情况作出粗略估计。病害序列提取周期影响之后,序列趋于平稳化,应用平稳序列分析方法,证明除周期性之外,序列还存在着自相关关系,以相隔3年和9年的变量相关性最好,以其作为因子建立了两因子自回归方程。将病害流行周期和自回归方程搭配建立了预报工具。用1974年以来的12年历史资料检
The sequence of rape virus disease from 1964 to 1985 in Wuhan was used to analyze the periodicity and autocorrelation of disease epidemics on computer. Variance analysis identified two disease epidemic periods, the first cycle of 6 years cycle, the second cycle of 9 years cycle. The superposition of two cycles plays a decisive role in the epidemic. Based on this, they can be used to make a rough estimate of the incidence of diseases in the coming years. After the cycle of disease sequence was extracted, the sequence became more stable. By using the method of stationary sequence analysis, it was proved that there was autocorrelation between the sequences in addition to the periodicity. The correlation between the sequence of three and nine years was the best, As a factor established two-factor autoregressive equations. The disease epidemic cycle and autoregressive equations with the establishment of a forecast tool. Use the 12-year historical data since 1974