论文部分内容阅读
根据政府跨时决策时所面临的“庞氏约束”条件并考虑价格水平因素,可计算出2014年4月-2015年3月政府名义债务上限为21.43-28.79万亿元。若财政收入继续增加、政府债券市场收益率和价格水平不发生大的变动,则月度政府名义债务上限还会提高,结合对2014-2017年全国政府到期偿债额的测算可以判断2015-2017年政府债务不会出现大的危险。但政府债券发行时一定要错开时间和债券期限,以使未来各月到期债务额不至高于政府名义债务月度上限。
According to the “Ponzi constraints” condition and the consideration of the price level in the government’s inter-temporal decision-making process, we can calculate the maximum nominal government debt of 21.43-28.79 trillion yuan from April 2014 to March 2015. If the fiscal revenue continues to increase, the government bond market yield and price levels do not change greatly, the monthly nominal debt ceiling will increase, combined with the calculation of the national government due debt 2014-2017 can be judged 2015-2017 Annual government debt will not be a big danger. However, government bonds must be staggered when the time and the bond deadline, so that the amount of debt due in the future shall not exceed the nominal monthly limit of government debt.