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本文认为,中美两国面对的都是总需求下降的局面,但总需求下降的原因却完全不同。美国总需求的下降是由于次贷危机导致银行紧缩贷款而引发的货币紧缩;而中国总需求下降的原因是全球金融危机导致的出口下降而引发的实体经济衰退,企业投资需求和居民户消费需求均下降,结果导致交易性货币需求下降。因此,美国是金融体系出了问题蔓延到实体经济,货币供给不足、货币需求较大;而中国则是实体经济出了问题蔓延到金融体系,货币需求不足、货币供给较大,因此就出现了实体经济与虚拟经济严重背离的局面。如果中国像美国一样采取大幅度扩张性货币政策,就会导致资产泡沫加剧,埋下金融危机的隐患。
This article argues that both China and the United States face declining aggregate demand, but the reasons for the drop in aggregate demand are completely different. The decline in total U.S. demand was due to the monetary tightening triggered by the bank’s credit squeeze as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis. The decline in total demand in China was due to the real economic recession caused by the global financial crisis, the demand for investment by enterprises and household consumption Are falling, resulting in the decline in demand for trading currencies. Therefore, the United States has a problem in the financial system spreading to the real economy, insufficient money supply and greater demand for money. In China, however, there is a problem in the real economy that spreads to the financial system, the demand for money is insufficient, and the money supply is large, Real economy and fictitious economy serious departure from the situation. If China adopted a drastic expansionary monetary policy like the United States, it would lead to an asset bubble intensifying and laying down the hidden dangers of the financial crisis.