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该文选取我国国民经济核算中主要的宏观经济指标1992年到2012年的时间序列数据,根据古典经济学原理及凯恩斯相关宏观经济理论,构建一个简单的宏观经济运行形势在中国与联立方程组模型。反映国民经济核算体系中的主要宏观经济指标问的相互问影响,间接体现出核算指标体系间的相依关系。该文最后对财政政策及货币政策的影响进行了模拟,得出财政政策较之货币政策更有效的结论,体现了我国主要宏观经济指标间相互影响的传导机制。
This paper chooses the time series data of the main macroeconomic indicators of our national economy from 1992 to 2012. According to the principles of classical economics and Keynesian macroeconomic theory, we construct a simple macroeconomic situation in China and the simultaneous equations model. Reflect the mutual interdependence of major macroeconomic indicators in the national economic accounting system and indirectly reflect the interdependent relationship between the accounting indicator systems. Finally, the paper simulates the impact of fiscal policy and monetary policy, draws a conclusion that fiscal policy is more effective than monetary policy, and reflects the transmission mechanism of the mutual influence between major macroeconomic indicators in our country.