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该文根据气候变化以及马尾松和云南松的生物学特性，利用Ｈｏｌｄｒｉｄｇｅ生命地带分类模型，应用生态信息系统分别预测了两个树种的地理位移趋势．结果表明：到２０５０年，马尾松分布区的北界将可能由目前的３４°Ｎ北移到４０°Ｎ，海拔上限将可能由目前的８００ｍ升高到１１３０ｍ，总面积可能减少２６０万ｈｍ２．云南松可能北移不显著，但可能有东移趋势，分布区的海拔上限将可能由目前的２８００ｍ升高到３０７７ｍ，总面积可能减少２２１．７７万ｈｍ２
Based on the climate change and the biological characteristics of Pinus massoniana and Pinus yunnanensis, the paper uses the Holdridge life belt classification model to predict the geographical displacement trends of the two tree species by using the ecological information system. The results show that by 2050, the north boundary of the masson pine distribution will likely shift from the current 34 ° N north to 40 ° N, and the upper limit of elevation may increase from the current 800 m to 1130 m and the total area may decrease by 2.6 million hm2. Pinus yunnanensis may not move significantly northward, but may have a tendency of eastward migration. The upper limit of the elevation of the distribution area may increase from the current 2800m to 3077m and the total area may decrease by 2,217,700hm 2