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针对新疆绿洲经济在“十二五”期间呈现出的某些不协调状态,为解决环境保护与经济发展之间的矛盾,让新疆的绿洲经济得到更加优质的发展,构建了绿洲经济协调发展的系统动力学模型,模型主要包括经济、人口、环境、水资源四个子系统。在系统模型中,通过调控模型中的关键变量,依据模型的正负反馈机制进行影响分析,再根据新疆绿洲经济发展趋势和相关政策文件设定不同的路径方案,对比分析得出最优发展路径,为新疆未来的绿洲经济协调发展规划提供参考。
In order to solve the contradiction between environmental protection and economic development and to enable Xinjiang’s oasis economy to achieve more high-quality development, the oasis economy has been coordinated with the oasis economy in Xinjiang during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” Development of the system dynamics model, the model includes the economy, population, environment, water resources, four subsystems. In the system model, through the control of the key variables in the model, based on the model positive and negative feedback mechanism for impact analysis, and then according to the trend of economic development in Xinjiang oasis and the relevant policy documents set different path programs, comparative analysis of the optimal path of development , Provide a reference for the future coordinated development of oasis economy in Xinjiang.