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今后5年,上海的人均 GDP将从5000美元提高到7500美元,这将是一个重大的阶段性跨越。由于这一阶段的特殊性和上海发展的现状,上海将面临一些特殊的困难或日发展之“坎”。在这里,“坎”的含义是指经济发展阶段跨越中需要突破的难点。也许,通过国际和历史的比较,可以使我们认识这个“坎”的性质,并为跨越这个“坎”提供启示。科技革命中的落后与有效需求不足阶段的困难按市场汇率计算,主要发达国家一般在上世纪70年代达到人均GDP5000美元。在时间上,美国比上海早约30年,日本早26年,德国早29年,英国早24年,法国早28年;在达到8000美元的时间上,美国要比上海计划的早约26年,日本早24年,德国早27年,英国早22年,法国早24年。一些国家的 GDP 从5000美元上升到8000美元只有2-4年,也与实际增长情况不符。导致这一结果的主要原因是欧洲国家货币对美元的汇率发生巨大变化。上世纪70
In the next five years, Shanghai’s GDP per capita will rise from 5,000 U.S. dollars to 7,500 U.S. dollars, which will be a major milestone. Due to the particularity of this stage and the status quo of Shanghai’s development, Shanghai will face some special difficulties or developments in Japan. Here, the meaning of “Kan” refers to the difficulties that need to be overcome in the process of economic development. Perhaps, through the comparison of international and historical history, we can make us recognize the nature of this “ridge” and provide an inspiration for crossing this “ridge.” The backwardness in the technological revolution and the difficulties in the phase of insufficient effective demand According to market exchange rates, the major developed countries generally achieved GDP per capita of US $ 5,000 in the 1970s. In time, the United States was 30 years earlier than Shanghai, Japan 26 years earlier, Germany 29 years earlier, Britain 24 years earlier and France 28 years earlier. At 8,000 U.S. dollars, the United States was 26 years earlier than planned in Shanghai , Japan as early as 24 years, Germany as early as 27 years, Britain as early as 22 years and France as early as 24 years. In some countries, the GDP has risen from 5,000 U.S. dollars to 8,000 U.S. dollars only for 2-4 years, which is also inconsistent with the actual growth. The main reason for this is the tremendous change in the exchange rate between European countries and the United States dollar. Last century 70