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近几年中,小麦灌浆期5月中旬的超常降雨,是1970年以来仅有的记录,同时导致了咸阳市近郊小麦区近几年赤霉病的流行。这给人们提供一个信息,即用5月中旬降雨量等因素,有可能作出较可靠的预报。笔者即是根据这一信息探索其预测方法的。通过1980—1986年7年资料分析表明,前两年5月中旬降雨量级别均值 X_1(≤10、20、30、40毫米为1、2、3、4级,>40毫米为5级),当年5月中旬降雨量级别 X_2(分级标
In recent years, the extraordinary rainfall in wheat filling period in mid-May is the only record since 1970, which led to the prevalence of scab in the suburbs of Xianyang in recent years. This gives people a message that it is possible to make more reliable forecasts based on factors such as rainfall in mid-May. The author is based on this information to explore its prediction method. According to the data analysis of seven years from 1980 to 1986, the average rainfall level in the middle of May of the previous two years was X_1 (≤10, 20, 30, 40 mm for Grade 1, 2, 3 and 4, and> 40 mm for Grade 5) Mid-May rainfall level X_2 (grading