论文部分内容阅读
目的建立北京地区先天性甲状腺功能低下症(CH)发病率的预测模型,为合理制定CH的防治、保健的策略及措施提供科学依据。方法构建并应用自回归求和移动平均(autoragressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型预测北京市的CH发病率。结果 ARIMA(0,1,0)模型可以较好的拟合1994-2011年北京市CH发病率的时间变化趋势,并可用于预测未来的CH发病率,提供较准确的CH发病率预测。根据预测值得知,2012年以后发病率可能会有较为明显的上升趋势,未来2年北京市CH平均发病率为42.02/10万。结论 ARIMA(0,1,0)模型可以较好的拟合北京市CH发病率的时间变化趋势,提示2012年以后发病率可能会有较为明显的上升趋势。
Objective To establish a predictive model for the incidence of congenital hypothyroidism (CH) in Beijing and to provide a scientific basis for the reasonable formulation of preventive and curative strategies and measures for CH. Methods The autoimmune integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed and used to predict CH incidence in Beijing. Results The ARIMA (0,1,0) model could well fit the time trend of CH incidence in Beijing from 1994 to 2011, and could be used to predict future CH incidence and provide a more accurate prediction of CH incidence. According to the predicted value, the incidence may have a more obvious upward trend after 2012, and the average incidence of CH in Beijing in the next two years will be 42.02 / 100000. Conclusion The ARIMA (0,1,0) model can better fit the time trend of CH incidence in Beijing, suggesting that there may be a significant upward trend in incidence after 2012.