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目的探讨累积和控制图模型(cumulative sum control chart,CUSUM)在流行性腮腺炎早期预警中的应用价值,为流行性腮腺炎的应急防制提供科学依据,也为其他传染病突发公共卫生事件的预警研究提供参考和借鉴。方法以江苏省各区县每日发病数为基础,从2012年1月1日起以CUSUM模型进行前瞻性试验,用灵敏度、特异度、及时性等3个指标对预警结果进行评价,并比较CUSUM模型预警与国家传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)之间的优劣。结果应用CUSUM模型进行预警分析全年共产生1688条预警信号,比自动预警系统产生的信号数少35.30%。CUSUM模型预警灵敏度为100%、特异度为95.84%,均高于自动预警系统(χ2=6.087,P=0.0136;χ2=602.48,P<0.0001);CUSUM模型预警及时性的中位数为3.5天,自动预警系统为6天,两者无统计学差异(Z=0.9173,P=0.3590)。结论江苏省腮腺炎疫情数据CUSUM模型预警分析效果优于自动预警系统,且有进一步提高的空间。
Objective To investigate the value of cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) in the early warning of mumps and provide a scientific basis for the emergency prevention of mumps, and also provide a scientific basis for the public health emergency of other infectious diseases Early warning research to provide reference and reference. Methods Based on the daily incidence of all districts and counties in Jiangsu Province, the CUSUM model was used prospectively from January 1, 2012 to evaluate the early warning results using three indicators: sensitivity, specificity and timeliness, and to compare CUSUM The advantages and disadvantages of model early warning and national automatic infectious disease warning system (CIDARS). Results Using CUSUM model for early warning analysis, a total of 1688 warning signals were generated in the year, which was 35.30% less than that of automatic warning system. The sensitivity of CUSUM model was 100%, specificity was 95.84%, higher than that of automatic warning system (χ2 = 6.087, P = 0.0136; χ2 = 602.48, P <0.0001). The median early warning time of CUSUM model was 3.5 days , Automatic warning system for 6 days, no significant difference between the two (Z = 0.9173, P = 0.3590). Conclusions The CUSUM model of mumps epidemic data in Jiangsu Province is better than the automatic warning system in early warning and analysis, and there is room for further improvement.