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以2002年为例,采用投入产出模型,从最终需求的角度对中国出口贸易引起的碳排放(包括直接和间接排放)进行了评估。结果表明,2002年中国为满足对外出口需求而在国内和国外引起的碳排放约288.22~330.49MtC,其中国内出口排放261.19 MtC,约占当年国内一次能源消费碳排放量的23.45%;大部分部门的出口碳排放主要是由国内排放所贡献,进口再出口排放对总出口排放的平均贡献率在9.38%~20.97%之间。中国单位产值出口的平均碳排放为0.093~0.106 kgC,其中0.084 kgC是在国内排放;碳密集部门多集中于重化工业、交通运输和部分轻工业。将来一方面,中国不宜增加高耗能行业的出口;另一方面,国外发达国家也应积极向中国等发展中国家转让先进生产技术,以减少全球温室气体排放,实现全球减排行动中公平与效率的双赢。
Taking 2002 as an example, an input-output model was used to evaluate China’s export-related carbon emissions (both direct and indirect) from the perspective of final demand. The results show that in 2002, China’s domestic and foreign carbon emissions were about 288.22 ~ 330.49MtC in order to meet the demand of foreign exports, of which domestic emissions were 261.19 MtC, accounting for 23.45% of the domestic primary energy consumption carbon emissions in that year; most of the departments Of the total exports were mainly contributed by domestic emissions. The average contribution of imports from re-export to total exports was between 9.38% and 20.97%. The average carbon emission per unit output value of China is 0.093-0.106 kgC, of which 0.084 kgC is discharged domestically. The carbon-intensive sectors are mostly concentrated in the heavy chemical industry, transportation, and some light industries. In the future, on the one hand, China should not increase the exports of high energy-consuming industries; on the other hand, the developed countries in the world should also actively transfer advanced production technologies to developing countries such as China in order to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and achieve fair and equitable Win-win efficiency.