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国民经济储蓄部门结构一般可以由居民储蓄、企业储蓄、政府储蓄来表示。本文采用协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验的方法对我国储蓄结构的变化与对外贸易的关系分别进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:出口、进口与三部门储蓄存在着长期的均衡关系,企业部门的储蓄是出口和进口增加的重要原因。保持对外贸易的平衡依赖于政府对各部门储蓄结构分布的合理引导。
The structure of the national economy’s savings sector can generally be expressed by resident savings, corporate savings and government savings. This paper uses cointegration analysis and Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between the change of China’s saving structure and the foreign trade respectively. The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between exports and imports and the savings of the three sectors. Savings in the corporate sector are important reasons for the increase in exports and imports. Maintaining the balance of foreign trade relies on the government’s reasonable guidance on the distribution of savings across sectors.