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据美国农业部(USDA)预测:2002/2003年度全球大米产量为3.8亿吨,远低于全球消费量,这也是第三个连续年将使2002/2003年度世界大米库存骤降2,750万吨,年度末库存仅1.05亿吨,是1986/1987年度以来最低点,预计期末库存只占消费量26％,也是1988/1984年度以来最低量。 造成产量不足原因或许与某些地区不利气候有关,同样与一个潜在因素有关。在1967～1987年20年时间里,单产量平均增长2.2％,但此后这种增长已明显放慢,实际上1999年起已停止增长。
USDA predicts that global rice production will be 380 million tons in 2002/2003, well below global consumption, which is the third consecutive year that will result in a massive 27.5 million tons of world rice inventories in 2002/2003, At the end of the year, the stocks at the end of the year were only 105 million tons, the lowest level since 1986/87. The ending stocks are expected to account for only 26% of the consumption, which is also the lowest since 1988/1984. The reason for the lack of output may be related to the unfavorable climate in some areas, which is also related to a potential factor. In the 20 years from 1967 to 1987, the average yield per unit increased by 2.2%, but this growth has slowed down considerably since then and in fact has ceased since 1999.