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2007年12月召开的中央经济工作会议明确指出,2008年要实施稳健的财政政策和从紧的货币政策。要进一步发挥货币政策在宏观调控中的重要作用,严格控制货币信贷总量和投放节奏,更好地调节社会总需求和改善国际收支平衡状况,维护金融稳定和安全。货币政策从紧是基于政府对当前物价连续上涨、货币信贷增长过快等宏观形势的准确判断。显然,这一政策将深刻影响到对银行资金依赖最大的股市和楼市。对股市而言,意味着“全民赚钱的时代”即将结束,单纯的资金推动型行情很难在2008年再现。对楼市来说,公众最为敏感的房屋销售价格以及地产企业都将受到一次前所未有的考验。
The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2007 made it clear that in 2008 it is necessary to implement a prudent fiscal policy and a tight monetary policy. We should further give play to the important role of monetary policy in macroeconomic regulation and control, strictly control the total amount of money and credit and the pace of delivery, better regulate aggregate social needs and improve the balance of payments, and safeguard financial stability and security. The tight monetary policy is based on the accurate judgment of the macroeconomic situation of the government such as the continuous rise of current prices and the rapid growth of money and credit. Obviously, this policy will have a profound impact on the stock market and the property market, which have the greatest reliance on bank funds. For the stock market, it means that the era of making money for all is coming to an end. A mere fund-driven market will hardly reproduce in 2008. For the property market, the most sensitive public housing sales prices and real estate companies will be subjected to an unprecedented test.