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本文首次从人力资本的角度来研究中美两国的产出差别。在人力资本模型的基础上,运用1981—2005年全世界52个国家的宏观经济面板数据,用最小二乘法,估算出产出的储蓄率弹性中人力资本占产出的份额为0.456,是对美国经济学家Mankiw等(1992)实证研究的进一步延伸,也是对人力资本占产出份额的最新、更全面、更科学的估计。本研究发现:在人力资本模型中,美中两国人力资本储蓄率两倍半的差别可以解释人均产出近10倍的差别,人力资本储蓄率的增加对人均产出有显著促进作用。在只有实物资本的模型中,中美两国相同的实物资本储蓄率只能得到相同的人均产出,完全无法解释人均产出在中美两国间17倍的巨大差别。本研究结论:增加人力资本储蓄,增加教育支出占GDP的比重,对于我国经济可持续增长、调整经济结构、转变经济增长方式具有事半功倍的重要意义。
This article first studies the output differences between China and the United States from the perspective of human capital. Based on the model of human capital, using the macro-economic panel data of 52 countries in the world from 1981 to 2005, the least square method was used to estimate that the share of human capital in output elasticity of output was 0.456, The further extension of the empirical research by the American economist Mankiw et al. (1992) is also the latest, more comprehensive and scientific estimation of the share of human capital in output. This study finds that in the model of human capital, the difference between the two-and-a-half times of the savings rate of human capital in the United States and China accounts for nearly 10 times the per capita output difference. The increase of the human capital saving rate can significantly promote the per capita output. In the model with only physical capital, the same saving rate of real capital in both China and the United States can only get the same output per capita, completely unable to explain the huge difference of 17 times the per capita output between China and the United States. The conclusion of this research is that increasing human capital savings and increasing education expenditure as a share of GDP have a significant effect on our country’s sustained economic growth, economic restructuring and transformation of economic growth.