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我国传统的经济影响评估通常关注灾害所造成的直接经济损失和人员伤亡,而忽略其间接经济影响和时间维度上的变化,本文从理论和实证两个方面分析了汶川地震对四川省GDP所造成的影响。首先,论文根据索罗增长模型分析了地震发生后灾区的可能增长趋势;然后,通过柯布-道格拉斯生产函数及时间序列方法预测出若不发生地震时四川省的GDP,通过“有灾”时的实际值与“无灾”时的预测值进行对比。研究发现震后的恢复重建政策对四川经济发挥了积极有效作用,特别是长期来看拉动了四川省GDP的较快增长。
China’s traditional economic impact assessment usually pays attention to the direct economic losses and casualties caused by the disasters while neglecting the indirect economic impact and the changes in the time dimension. This paper analyzes the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on the GDP of Sichuan Province from both theoretical and empirical aspects Impact. First of all, based on the Solow growth model, the paper analyzes the possible growth trend of the disaster areas after the earthquake. Then, using the Cobb-Douglas production function and time series method to predict the GDP of Sichuan Province without earthquakes, “When the actual value and ” no disaster "compared to the predicted value. The study found that post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction policies have played a positive and effective role in Sichuan’s economy, especially in the long term, driving Sichuan’s GDP to a relatively rapid growth.