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一、引 言 石岛近海──我国北方的重要渔场,位于山东半岛东部（北纬35°-37°、东经122°-123°30′）,水深一般在80米以内;6月中、下旬,鲁北沿岸流和黄海暖流这两种不同性质的水系在这里交汇。交汇时海水辐合度增大,聚集了多种营养盐类,促使浮游生物大量繁殖,从而形成了丰富的饵料生物区。而石岛近海浅水区,由于礁石和海草丰富,3月至4月是青鱼（太平洋鯡）的产卵场,4月至5月又是鹰爪虾的产卵场;外海是鲐、鲅鱼的过路渔场。加之石岛近海各年温、盐度变化较大,直接影响着迥游性鱼类的集群和散群,渔场的远近和渔期的早晚~[1,2]。在渔海况的变化中,水温的变化对上述鱼类的影响最为明显~[4]。为此,我们将石岛近海1960-1981年度,表、底层3-5月的1日（月初）及15日（月中）的水温值进行分类,并作出预报,以便合理地安排渔业生产。
I. INTRODUCTION Shidao offshore - an important fishing ground in the northern part of China, is located in the eastern part of Shandong Peninsula (latitude 35 ° -37 ° north, east longitude 122 ° -123 ° 30 ’) and its depth is generally within 80 meters. In mid-June, The north coast flow and the Yellow Sea warm current are two different types of water where the intersection. Convergence of seawater convergence increases, gathered a variety of nutrients, to promote large-scale propagation of plankton, which formed a rich biological zone of feed. The Shidao offshore shallow waters, due to the rich reefs and seagrass, March to April is the herring spawning grounds, April to May is the claw shrimp spawning grounds; Crossing fisheries. In addition, the annual temperature and salinity of Shidao offshore have a great change, which will directly affect the clustering and dispersal of far-flung fish, the far-near of fishery and fishing sooner or later. Changes in the fishing sea conditions, the water temperature changes on the most obvious impact on the fish ~ 4. To this end, we classify the water temperature values of the Shimabuk off-shore for the period 1960-1981, the table, and the ground floor for the first (beginning of the month) and the 15th (mid-month) from March to May, and make a forecast so that the fishery production can be reasonably arranged.