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根据工程系统的可分解性，将水电工程总体造价分解成若干个子工程造价。用模糊数学贴近度原理，建立子工程造价的模糊估算模型；运用主观估计法，估计出各个子工程造价随机变化的期望值和方差。然后依据概率论多元随机变量理论，推出水电工程总体造价概率分布的期望值和方差，并确定了造价随机变化的概率分布关系曲线。该估计方法客观、全面地反映了工程造价的实际随机变化特性。
According to the decomposability of engineering system, the overall cost of hydropower project is divided into several sub-project costs. By using fuzzy mathematics closeness principle, a fuzzy estimation model of subproject cost is established. Subjective estimation method is used to estimate the expected value and variance of each subproject cost. Based on the multivariate random variable theory of probability, the expectation value and variance of the total cost of the hydropower project are deduced. The probability distribution curve of the random change of the cost is determined. The estimation method objectively and comprehensively reflects the actual random variation of project cost.