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为了探讨乳牙列龋病对第一恒磨牙龋病的预测价值，本研究依据１６０名儿童５岁时乳牙列ｄｍｆｔ指数与其８、９或１０岁时第一恒磨牙ＤＭＦＴ指数的纵向资料，对乳牙龋病与第一恒磨牙龋病进行相关分析并计算以乳牙列龋病状况来预测第一恒磨牙龋病的特异性，敏感性，正确预测率，阳性及阴性预测值。结果显示：５岁时乳牙列ｄｍｆｔ与早期第一恒磨牙ＤＭＦＴ显著相关，敏感性与特异性之和最大值为１２８％，出现在ｄｍｆｔ为８时，此时正确预测率为６４．４％错误预测率为３５．６％。此结果表明：仅依靠乳牙列ｄｍｆｔ指数，决定个体第一恒磨牙是否应采取窝沟封闭等预防措施还不够全面，应建立包括乳牙列ｄｍｆｔ在内的多因素龋病预测方法
In order to investigate the predictive value of deciduous dentition caries on the first permanent molar dental caries, based on the longitudinal data of the dmft index of the deciduous dentition at the age of 5 years and the DMFT index of the first permanent molar at the age of 8, 9 or 10 years old in 160 children, Caries and the first permanent molar dental caries were analyzed and the specific, sensitivity, correct prediction rate, positive and negative predictive value of the first permanent molar dental caries were calculated according to the deciduous dental caries status. The results showed that at age 5, the dmft of deciduous dentition was significantly correlated with DMFT of the first permanent molars, the maximum sum of sensitivities and specificities was 128%, when dmft was 8, the correct prediction rate was 64.4% at this time The forecast rate is 35.6%. The results show that: only rely on the dmft index of deciduous teeth to determine whether the first permanent molars should take precautions such as pit and fissure sealant is not comprehensive enough, including the deciduous dentition should be established, including multi-factor caries prediction method