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中国石油经济技术研究院发布《2008年国内外油气行业发展报告》指出:2008年,全球性金融危机拖累世界经济增速放缓,世界石油需求出现自1983年以来的首次负增长。世界油气储产量稳步增长,但勘探开发成本快速增长极大冲抵了上游投资。炼油业结构调整继续深入,世界主要地区炼油装置开工率和炼油毛利急剧下降。世界天然气继续保持快速发展势头,主要市场天然气价格大幅上扬,地缘政治和安全供应问题凸显。国际大石油公司净利润呈先高后低态势,储产量继续下滑,投资和成本继续上升,但面对金融危机,大石油公司表现出较强的抗风险能力。2009年,世界石油石化行业将进入新一轮调整期,规模扩张快、出现财务危机的独立石油公司可能成为大公司的收购对象。高成本石油勘探开发项目投资将受到影响。大量新增炼油能力投产和石油需求大幅减少将导致炼厂开工率进一步下降。但从长期看,全行业供需紧平衡的基本态势没有发生根本性改变。上游仍是行业发展的重点,战略性勘探开发项目将继续推进。
China Petroleum Technology and Research Institute released “2008 Domestic and Overseas Oil and Gas Industry Development Report” that: In 2008, the global financial crisis dragged down the world economic growth slowed down, the world oil demand for the first time since 1983, the negative growth. The world’s oil and gas reserves have steadily increased, but the rapid growth in exploration and development costs has greatly offset the upstream investment. The structural adjustment of the refining industry continued its deepening, with the operating rates of refining facilities and refining margins sharply declining in the major regions of the world. The world natural gas continued to maintain its rapid growth momentum. Natural gas prices in major markets soared, highlighting issues of geopolitical and security supplies. The net profit of international large oil companies showed the trend of “high and low”, storage and production continued to decline, investment and cost continued to rise, but in the face of the financial crisis, large oil companies showed strong anti-risk ability. In 2009, the world petroleum and petrochemical industry will enter a new round of adjustment period, its scale will expand rapidly and the independent oil company with financial crisis may become the acquisition target of large companies. Investment in high-cost oil exploration and development projects will be affected. A large number of new refinery capacity put into operation and a substantial reduction in oil demand will lead to refinery operating rates further decline. However, in the long run, no fundamental change has taken place in the basic balance between supply and demand across the industry. Upstream is still the focus of the development of the industry and strategic exploration and development projects will continue to advance.