论文部分内容阅读
中国经济自20世纪90年代中期后波动幅度明显下降,出现平稳化趋势。与此同时,由国有企业和非国有企业构成的二元微观经济主体的预算约束硬化水平显著提高,投资行为趋于理性化。有鉴于此,构建包含投资的货币先行约束和金融中介效率因素的新凯恩斯黏性价格模型,通过数值模拟研究发现:预算约束硬化通过实际货币余额渠道促使企业重视内部现金积累,进而有效地抑制了企业的投资冲动行为。此外,预算约束硬化还增强了金融中介对经济波动的熨平效果。因此,企业预算约束的硬化和金融中介效率的提高有助于增强宏观经济的稳定性,预算约束硬化的显著变化能够解释中国经济波动出现的平稳化趋势。
Since the mid-90s of the 20th century, the Chinese economy has seen a marked decline in its volatility, resulting in a steady trend. At the same time, the budgetary constraints of the dual microeconomic entities consisting of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises have risen significantly and the investment behavior has become more rational. In view of this, we construct a new Keynesian cohesive price model that includes the monetary precedent constraint of investment and the efficiency of financial intermediary. Through the numerical simulation, it is found that the budget constraint hardens the enterprise to emphasize the internal cash accumulation through the actual monetary balance channel, thus effectively restrain Business investment impulse. In addition, budgetary constraints have also strengthened the scalding effect of financial intermediation on economic fluctuations. Therefore, the firm budgetary constraints and the improvement of financial intermediation efficiency will help to enhance macroeconomic stability. The significant changes in the budget constraint will explain the trend of the stabilization of China’s economic fluctuations.