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一、对总体经济形势的判断: 主张局部过热论经过连续两年8%以上的高增长后,2004年宏观经济增长形势变得较为微妙,“过热论”、“不热论”以及“局部过热论”不断地发生碰撞,莫衷一是。但对当前的宏观经济形势,有两点认识是相对明确或已经形成共识的,一是中国经济自2002年中期以后进入到新一轮快速增长周期;二是局部的投资过热潜伏着较大的宏观经济风险,特别是可能造成今后几年部分行业生产过剩的巨大压力,并很可能再次重演“通货紧缩”现象。
I. Judgment on the Overall Economic Situation: Advocating Local Overheating After the growth of more than 8% for two consecutive years, the macroeconomic growth in 2004 has become more subtle, with “overheating” and “not hot” And “local overheating theory ” continue to collide, incomprehensible. However, for the current macroeconomic situation, there are two points of recognition that are relatively clear or have reached consensus. First, the economy of China has entered a new cycle of rapid growth since the middle of 2002. The second is that local investment overheating lurks a larger Macroeconomic risks, especially the enormous pressure that may cause overproduction in some sectors in the next few years, are likely to repeat the “deflation” phenomenon once again.