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经过2年半时间的调整,2003年11月7日中国A股市场市盈率为37.48倍。与境外市场相比,我们至少有30%股票已具有较好的投资价值。由于市盈率指标正在结构性趋好,市场投资机会也越来越多。投资价值凸现的股票,将成为2004股市突破的主导力量。2004年,预计上证股票市场低点在1300左右,高点在1600左右。市场仍将延续2003年“先扬后抑”的“阶段性牛市”走势,局部牛市的“二八规律”仍将发挥重要作用。但强势板块和品种的涨幅将会弱于2003年,由于基本面变化而产生的新的景气度大幅上升的行业有望成为新的龙头板块。综合考虑行业景气和市场走势背离情况、上市公司行业代表性和绝对估值水平,推荐食品、机械、有色金属和造纸工业;从行业市盈率国际比较看,电力、煤炭、钢铁、医药、石油化学基本接近美国市场情况。考虑行业国内景气度情况,推荐电力、钢铁、煤炭、石化工业;对机场、港口等垄断型行业的龙头公司及具有垄断性竞争优势的公司长期看好;对于不景气行业,关注有核心竞争力的上市公司。
After two and a half years of adjustment, the November 7, 2003 China A-share market price-earnings ratio of 37.48 times. Compared with the overseas market, we at least 30% of the shares already have good investment value. As the price-earnings ratio index is getting better in structure, the market investment opportunities are more and more. The outstanding investment value of the stock, will become the leading force in the 2004 stock market breakthrough. In 2004, the Shanghai stock market is expected to lows at about 1300, the high point of about 1600. The market will continue the trend of “phased bull market” in “Xiangyanghouyi” in 2003, and the “28 law” of the local bull market will still play an important role. However, the strong plate and variety gains will be weaker than in 2003, due to the fundamentals of the new boom arising from the substantial increase in the industry is expected to become the new leader. Considering the divergence of industry boom and market trend, the representativeness and absolute valuation of listed companies, we recommend food, machinery, non-ferrous metal and paper making industry. According to the international industry P / E ratio, electricity, coal, steel, medicine and petrochemistry Close to the US market. Considering the domestic boom of the industry, we recommend that the power, steel, coal and petrochemical industries be recommended; long-term optimistic about the leading companies in the monopolistic industries such as airports and ports and the companies with monopolistic competitive advantages; and those that are concerned with the core competitiveness in the recessionary industry Listed company.