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城市化进程中我国耕地非农化现象日益加剧,这在推动经济增长的同时也可能影响粮食安全与生态环境。从可持续发展观点出发,力图揭示耕地资源变化与经济增长的一般化规律。利用我国2001～2010年省域面板数据建构耕地资源与经济增长之间的经济计量模型,验证和分析其存在的相互关系。研究结果表明:第一,从长期看我国东、中、西部地区的耕地资源都可以促进经济增长,并且通过误差修正调整,可以维持经济增长与耕地资源的稳定均衡关系。第二,短期内我国三大区域耕地资源与经济增长二者之间存在双向因果关系;从长期考虑,东、中部地区耕地资源与经济增长二者之间存在单向因果关系,而在西部地区耕地资源与经济增长二者之间存在双向因果关系。
In the process of urbanization, the non-agriculturalization of cultivated land in our country is becoming more and more intensified, which may also affect food security and ecological environment while promoting economic growth. From the point of view of sustainable development, trying to reveal the general rules of the change of cultivated land resources and economic growth. Using the econometric model of cultivated land resources and economic growth in our country from 2001 to 2010, we validate and analyze the interrelation between them. The results show that: First, from a long-term perspective, the cultivated land resources in the eastern, central and western regions of China can promote economic growth, and through error correction and adjustment, the stable and balanced relationship between economic growth and cultivated land resources can be maintained. Second, there is a two-way causal relationship between cultivated land resources and economic growth in the three major regions in the short term. From a long-term perspective, there is a one-way causal relationship between cultivated land resources and economic growth in the eastern and central regions. In the western region There is a two-way causal relationship between cultivated land resources and economic growth.