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近来,世界经济形势出现了较大变化。对于美国经济,市场的共识是美联储在下半年退出QE,并在明年升息。如果联邦基金利率提高0.5个百分点的话,会影响全世界绝大部分的海外利息。美元加息以后,美元的回流和走强是大概率事件,因此股票、债券都会面临下跌压力。欧洲最近曝光了许多新问题,但是总的来说,我们的判断欧洲经济已经触底,再坏也坏不到哪去了。目前欧洲的资产价格还在底部,从投资的角度来说,更多的聚焦欧洲市场是明智之举。
Recently, the world economic situation has undergone major changes. For the U.S. economy, the consensus of the market is that the Fed will withdraw from QE in the second half of the year and raise interest rates next year. If the federal funds rate increased by 0.5 percentage points, it will affect the vast majority of overseas interest in the world. After the dollar rises, the return and strength of the dollar is a high probability event, so stocks and bonds will face downward pressure. Europe recently exposed many new issues, but in general, our judgment that the European economy has bottomed out, worse or worse. Asset prices in Europe are still at the bottom, from the investment point of view, more focused on the European market is a wise move.