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采用奎屯河流域的乌苏、沙湾气象站1960—2009年50 a来的气温、降水量资料和奎屯河将军庙水文站的降水量、径流量资料,分析了气温、降水、冰川等变化对奎屯河出山口地表径流的影响.结果表明:将军庙水文站年降水变化与径流量呈显著正相关;尽管气温呈上升趋势,但年径流与平原地区和出山口的气温相关不很密切,气温可通过影响蒸发增加山区消耗水量,减少径流.然而,气温变暖会加剧冰雪消融,使冰川退缩变薄,特别是消耗冰川积累量来增加河川径流.在奎屯河出山口地表年径流量中,与20世纪80年代相比,冰川径流增加了5.7%,多年平均情况下消耗冰川积累的融水径流约占冰川径流的30%.同时,随气候变化的极值化,要注意高山地区降水减少和汛期气温降低引起河川径流减少,降水、气温高值引起的年径流增大与洪水危害,以及引起河川径流的年际变幅增大,并对水利工程造成的影响.有关气候变化对河川径流定量预测有待今后进一步探讨.
Based on the temperature and precipitation data of Wusu and Shawan meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 and the precipitation and runoff data of the Jiangjunmiao hydrological station in the Kuitun River Basin, the change of temperature, precipitation and glacier was analyzed The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the annual precipitation and the runoff in Jiangjunmiao Hydrological Station. Although the temperature is on the rise, the annual runoff is not closely related to the temperature in the plain and the outlet, and the temperature can be However, the warming of the temperature will exacerbate the ice melting and make the glacier retreat thinning, especially the accumulation of glaciers to increase the runoff.Among the annual surface runoff in the outlet of the Kuitun River, Glacier runoff increased by 5.7% compared with the 1980s, and the average annual melt melt water runoff from glacier accumulation accounts for about 30% of the glacier runoff. At the same time, with the extreme climate change, attention should be paid to the reduction of precipitation in the mountainous areas and the flood season The decrease of temperature leads to the decrease of runoff of rivers, the increase of annual runoff and flood damage caused by precipitation and high temperature, as well as the increase of interannual amplitude of runoff, The impact caused by the project For further explored in future climate change on river runoff forecast to be quantified.