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为缓解水资源供需矛盾,我国政府投入大量资金兴修水利。如何评价供水投资效果及其对国民经济产生的影响,以便于确定合理的投资定位与投资决策,已成为目前亟待解决的热点问题之一。构建黑龙江省静态CGE模型,根据黑龙江省近几年供水投资实际增长规模设计三种投资方案,定量估算一定的供水投资政策对黑龙江省经济总量、其他部门投资、不同部门的总产出和供用水量的潜在影响,结果表明:①供水部门投资能拉动国民经济发展,当投资增长规模约为40%～50%时,GDP增长速率最大;②供水部门投资增长会拉动高用水工业和农业部门投资上涨,导致一般用水工业、建筑业、一般用水服务业和高用水服务业投资下降;③各部门总产出增长率大小依次为高用水工业、高用水服务业、一般用水服务业、农业和建筑业,各部门用水量增长最快的是高用水工业,其次为高用水服务业、一般用水服务业和建筑业;④黑龙江省供水部门投资增长规模大于43%时,供水部门总产出方能满足用水需求,有利于保证城镇供水安全。综合GDP增长速率考虑,黑龙江省适宜的供水投资增长规模应为43%～50%。
To alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, our government has invested a lot of money to build water conservancy projects. How to evaluate the effect of water supply investment and its impact on the national economy in order to determine a reasonable investment orientation and investment decisions has become one of the hot issues to be solved urgently. Constructing a static CGE model in Heilongjiang Province, according to the actual growth of water supply investment in Heilongjiang Province in recent years, we designed three kinds of investment programs to quantitatively estimate the total amount of water supply, investment in other sectors, total output and supply of different departments in Heilongjiang Province The results show that: (1) The investment of water supply department can promote the development of national economy, and the GDP growth rate is the largest when the investment growth is about 40% ~ 50%; (2) The investment growth of water supply department will drive the investment of high water consumption industry and agriculture sector The investment in general water service industry and high water service industry dropped; ③ The growth rate of total output of various departments ranked in order of high water use industry, high water service industry, general water service industry, agriculture and construction The water consumption growth in all sectors and sectors was the highest in water-intensive industries, followed by the high-water service industry, general water service industry and construction industry. ④When the investment growth scale of Heilongjiang Water Supply Department was more than 43%, the total output of water supply department Meet the water demand, is conducive to ensuring the safety of urban water supply. Considering GDP growth rate, Heilongjiang Province, the appropriate water supply investment scale should be 43% to 50%.