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以青海省柴达尔—木里铁路、热水—江仓公路沿线两侧约10 km缓冲区为研究区域,以冻土钻孔实测数据为基础,定量分析和评价了经度、纬度、高程、太阳辐射、坡度、坡向、地面曲率等地形—候因子对沿线区域多年冻土分布的影响,建立了以经度、高程、坡度为自变量、多年冻土发生概率为因变量的Logistic模型。借助于GIS软件和DEM数据,完成了道路沿线区域多年冻土分布概率图的绘制和多年冻土分布概率的特征分析。结果表明,极可能多年冻土(概率值为0.75～1)的分布面积为1983 km2,占整个研究区域面积的65%;可能多年冻土(概率值为0.5～0.75)的分布区面积为192 km2,占研究区域面积的6%;季节冻土(概率值<0.5)的分布区面积为894 km2,占沿线区域面积的29%。
Based on the measured data of about 10 km on both sides of Qidar-Muli Railway and Hot Water-Jiangcang Road in Qinghai Province, the longitude, latitude, elevation, The influence of topography and climate factors, such as radiation, slope, aspect and ground curvature on the permafrost distribution along the line, was established. Logistic model with longitude, elevation and slope as independent variables and permafrost as the dependent variable was established. With the help of GIS software and DEM data, the mapping of permafrost distribution probability map and the characteristic analysis of permafrost distribution probability along the road are completed. The results show that it is very likely that the distribution area of permafrost with a probability of 0.75-1 is 1983km 2, accounting for 65% of the total area of the study area. The area of the possible permafrost with a probability of 0.5-0.75 is 192 km2, accounting for 6% of the study area; seasonal frozen soil (probability value <0.5), the distribution area of 894 km2, accounting for 29% of the area along the line.