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利用乌鲁木齐河1957-2009年的径流、气温、降水逐月资料,分析乌鲁木齐河上游出山口年径流变化特征及其与气候变化的关系。研究结果表明:1乌鲁木齐河上游出山口径流的年际变化相对稳定,但年内分配极不平衡,其中夏季径流量最大,约占全年的61.8%,其他各月径流量只占全年的38.2%;从汛期和枯期来看,乌鲁木齐河上游汛期和枯水期径流量相差较大;2近50年来,随着乌鲁木齐河上游流域出现明显的升温趋势,流域内降水呈减少的趋势;从径流年际变化的分析来看,随着乌鲁木齐河上游流域来水的增加,降水和气温的变化显著。
Based on monthly data of runoff, air temperature and precipitation from Urumqi River from 1957 to 2009, the annual runoff characteristics of the upper reaches of the Urumqi River and its relationship with climate change were analyzed. The results show that: (1) The annual variation of runoff in the upper reaches of Urumqi River is relatively stable, but the distribution is extremely unbalanced during the year, of which the summer runoff is the largest, accounting for 61.8% of the whole year, and the other monthly runoffs are only 38.2 %; From the flood season and the dry period, the runoff in flood season and dry season in the upper reaches of the Urumqi River is quite different. In the recent 50 years, with the obvious warming trend in the upper reaches of the Urumqi River, rainfall in the watershed tends to decrease; According to the analysis of the change of precipitation, the precipitation and temperature change significantly with the increase of incoming water in the upper reaches of the Urumqi River.