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目的了解泉州市伤寒、副伤寒疫情的流行特征,预测发病趋势。方法用描述性流行病学方法分析2005—2015年伤寒、副伤寒发病资料;用ARIMA模型预测2016—2018年发病趋势。结果泉州市2005—2015共报告伤寒、副伤寒病人508例,年发病率1.30/10万,均以伤寒为主;6~9月为发病高峰(47.0%)。患者性别比116∶100,以0~5岁(21.7%)和25~30岁(11.2%)居多;散居儿童最多(21.9%),其次是农民(16.7%)。各县(区)均有病例报告,发病数前5位依次为晋江(29.1%)、南安(18.1%)、丰泽(10.6%)、鲤城(9.1%)和石狮(7.5%)。预测2015年后伤寒、副伤寒发病率会增加,但增幅不大。结论泉州市伤寒、副伤寒疫情夏秋季多见,散居儿童和农民是防控重点人群。应消除伤寒、副伤寒流行的危险因素,以防止疫情暴发。
Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of typhoid and paratyphoid epidemic in Quanzhou and predict the trend of the incidence. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in 2005-2015. The ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in 2016-2018. Results A total of 508 cases of typhoid and paratyphoid were reported in Quanzhou from 2005 to 2015, the annual incidence rate was 1.30 / 100 000, all of which were mainly typhoid fever. The peak incidence was 47.0% from June to September. The patient sex ratio was 116: 100, with the majority being 0-5 years (21.7%) and 25-30 years (11.2%), the most diaspora (21.9%) followed by farmers (16.7%). Case reports were made in all counties (districts). The top five cases were Jinjiang (29.1%), Nanan (18.1%), Fortress (10.6%), Licheng (9.1%) and Shishi (7.5%). It is predicted that the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid will increase after 2015, but the increase rate is insignificant. Conclusions The typhoid and paratyphoid epidemic in Quanzhou is more common in summer and autumn, and the scattered children and peasants are the key people in prevention and control. The risk factors of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever should be eliminated so as to prevent the outbreak of epidemic.