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从A股整体来看与中国海外上市公司差距较大,PB基本持平,而ROE水平远低于海外上市公司,由此当前的PE水平也要高出50%;但占A股市场近2/3市值的沪深300与海外上市公司差距明显缩小,考虑到对价,市盈率已低于恒生中国内地综指,从ROE看差距也并不明显。行业上,非周期性消费无论用市净率还是市盈率来衡量都明显高于海外上市公司水平,值得警惕;基础原材料无论PB、PE还是ROE水平都和中国海外上市公司的水平接近,如果考虑到送股则具有相当的估值吸引力。H股(在外流通股加权)溢价目前已接近25%,A股较H股折价的仅有1只,溢价在20%以内的也仅有8只,既使考虑到对价支付也没有特别的优势。虽然以自下而上的盈利预测来计算,海通300的隐含股权风险溢价达到9%,大大超过海外上市公司的历史均值7.5%,但考虑到盈利预测可能会系统性高估以及未来的盈利预测下调,也可以理解了。我们认为从估值角度看,市场的上升空间在10%以内。
As a whole, the gap between A shares and Chinese listed companies is relatively large. PB is basically the same while the ROE level is far lower than that of overseas listed companies. As a result, the current PE level is also 50% higher. However, accounting for nearly 2 / 3 market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and overseas listed companies significantly narrowing the gap, taking into account the consideration, price-earnings ratio has been below the Hang Seng China KLCI, from the ROE to see the gap is not obvious. Industry, non-cyclical consumption regardless of the use of book value or price-earnings ratio to measure both significantly higher than the level of overseas listed companies, should be vigilant; basic raw materials regardless of PB, PE or ROE level and the level of Chinese overseas listed companies, taking into account Bonus shares have considerable valuation attractiveness. The premium of H shares (out-of-stocks weighted) is currently close to 25%, A-shares have only one discount to H-shares and only 8 premiums within 20%, even taking into account the consideration paid . Although calculated based on the bottom-up profit forecast, Haitong 300’s implied equity risk premium reached 9%, well above the historical average of 7.5% for overseas listed companies. However, given that earnings forecasts may be systematically overvalued and future earnings Prediction down, also understandable. We think from the valuation point of view, the market upside in less than 10%.