中国经济真的步入了下行通道吗?

• 作 者: 本刊经济编辑部课题组 郭斐然 包香明 申世军 佘桂荣
• 出 处: 求是
• 发表日期: 2012年14期
• 关键词: 下行通道 世界经济复苏 经济下行压力 经济增长 区间 国际金融危机 外部 内生动力 产能过剩 要素优化

国际金融危机爆发以来,国内外经济形势发生了深刻变化。特别是今年,世界经济复苏的复杂与艰难进一步凸显。受外部需求大幅收缩的影响,我国经济增长面临着严峻的困难与挑战,经济下行压力加大。对此,有议论认为中国经济已经步入了下行通道。那么,下降是在正常区间还是不可逆转,这就成为我们正确判断经济形势的关键,迫切需要加以回答。一、现阶段经济增速放缓仍在正常

Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the economic situation at home and abroad has undergone profound changes. Especially this year, the complicated and difficult economic recovery in the world further highlights. Affected by the sharp contraction of external demand, China’s economic growth is facing severe difficulties and challenges, with downward pressure on the economy. In this regard, there are arguments that China’s economy has entered the downward path. So, whether the decline is in the normal range or irreversible has become the key to our correct judgment of the economic situation and an urgent need to be answered. First, the current slowdown in economic growth is still normal