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电力行业碳减排潜力是研究如何把单位GDP碳减排总量目标分解到各个行业的重要基础工作之一。研究综合考虑产业结构优化、电源结构优化、节能政策和节能减排技术进步对电力行业碳减排的影响,提出了一种对不同的碳减排情景设计与分析评价模型。以重庆市电力行业为案例设计了3种情景,研究认为产业结构优化对电力行业碳减排影响较大,但投资额巨大;水火电资源限制电源结构优化的碳减排潜力;电力节能减排技术推广应用对碳减排影响显著,且投资成本适中;产业结构变化与电力行业供电量达到倒“U”型顶点之前对电力生产进行强制调整,将对经济有较大损害。
The carbon emission reduction potential of the power industry is one of the important basic work to study how to decompose the total carbon emission reduction target of a unit of GDP into various industries. The research considers the impact of industrial structure optimization, power supply structure optimization, energy saving policy and energy saving and emission reduction technology on carbon emission reduction in power industry. A model for different scenarios of carbon emission reduction design and analysis is proposed. Chongqing Electric Power Industry as a case for the design of three scenarios, the study believes that the optimization of industrial structure on the power industry carbon emissions greater impact, but a huge investment; hydro-thermal power resources to limit the power structure optimization of carbon emission reduction potential; energy-saving emission reduction Technology promotion and application have a significant impact on carbon emission reduction, and the investment cost is moderate; before the change of industrial structure and power supply in the power industry reach the peak of “U”, forced adjustment of electricity production will cause great damage to the economy.