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根据系统分析方法，建立了柑桔潜叶蛾幼虫、蛹和２种寄生蜂Ｔｅｔｒａｓｔｉｃｈｕｓｐｈｙｌｏｃ－ｎｉｓｔｏｉｄｅｓ、Ｃｉｒｒｏｓｐｉｌｕｓｑｕａｄｒｉｓｔｒｉａｔｕｓ、以及捕食性天敌类群的５维系统模型，模型为连续型微分方程组，并具有时滞及扰动因子．模型依据生命表资料和在广东省四会县的田间调查数据，对柑桔潜叶蛾—天敌系统进行了模拟．模拟结果显示，柑桔潜叶蛾幼虫及蛹的数量在６月和７月份各有１个发生高峰，以７月中旬至８月上旬发生最为严重，捕食性天敌在６月份数量较低，７月以后呈Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ型增长，寄生蜂的种群发生也呈相应的规律性波动；模型的模拟趋势与田间调查情况基本吻合．对模型的灵敏度检验得知，影响系统的关键因子主要包括系统初值，柑桔潜叶蛾成虫初始数量，天敌（包括寄生蜂）的死亡率、天敌的扰动因子（迁入量）等．在系统模型中，笔者提出了寄生蜂自然死亡率与柑桔潜叶蛾相应虫态的密度成比例相关的假设，该假设有待进一步验证
According to the method of systematic analysis, a 5-dimensional model of Tetrastichusphyloc-nistoides, Cirrospilus quadristriatus and predatory natural enemies of larvae, pupae and two parasitic wasps was established. The models were continuous differential equations with time-delay and Disturbance factor. Based on the life table data and the field survey data in Sihui County of Guangdong Province, the model was simulated for the leafminer and the natural enemy system of citrus. The simulation results showed that the numbers of larvae and pupae of L. militaris peaked at 1 in June and July respectively, with the most serious occurring from mid July to early August and the predation of natural enemies was low in June. 7 Logistic-type growth occurred after the month, and the occurrence of parasitoids also showed regular fluctuations. The simulation trend of the model basically agrees with the field investigation. The sensitivity of the model tests showed that the key factors affecting the system include the initial value of the system, the initial population of adult citrus moth, the natural enemies (including parasitoids) mortality, natural enemies of the disturbance factor (immigration) and so on. In the system model, the hypothesis that the natural mortality of parasitoid was proportional to the density of the corresponding insect state of citrus leafminer was proposed, which needs to be further verified