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研究利用1992-2013年江苏省酸雨观测资料和大豆产量资料,分析酸雨对淮北地区大豆产量的影响。首先分析了淮北地区大豆生育期内酸雨发生的时空分布特征;采用拉格朗日插值法计算了酸雨年的大豆期望产量,得到酸雨致灾损失率;然后通过对大豆酸雨灾损率与生育期降水p H做相关分析,筛选大豆生长受酸雨影响最敏感的生育阶段,构建基于生育期降水p H的产量损失模型;最后,依据酸雨灾害损失率和酸雨发生频率确定风险指数模型,根据风险指数大小对淮北地区大豆生长开展酸雨影响风险区划。结果表明:2007年以来,淮北地区大豆生育期内酸雨发生频率自西向东逐渐增加,且有逐年下降趋势;生育时期内降水p H除淮安外皆小于5.6,2000年以后徐州、淮安大豆生育期降水p H持续下降,至2009年开始回升;大豆受酸雨影响平均灾损率为8%~20%,徐州的平均灾损率高于淮安;大豆成熟前各生育期的降水p H与产量灾损率呈非线性显著负相关,即灾损率随着生育期降水p H的增加而呈曲线下降,以开花~结荚期和播种~出苗期最显著;酸雨对大豆生长影响的风险分区以灌云、灌南以及睢宁县为风险高值区,徐州、泗洪和淮安为风险低值区,其它地区为中影响区。
Based on the data of acid rain observation and soybean yield in Jiangsu Province from 1992 to 2013, the study analyzed the influence of acid rain on soybean yield in Huaibei area. Firstly, the spatio-temporal distribution of acid rain during the growth period of soybean in Huaibei area was analyzed. The expected yield of soybean in acid rain year was calculated by Lagrange interpolation method, and the loss rate of acid rain disaster was obtained. Then, Precipitation p H, correlation analysis was conducted to screen the most sensitive growth stage of soybean growth affected by acid rain, and to build a yield loss model based on precipitation p H during growing period. Finally, the risk index model was established based on the rate of acid rain disasters and acid rain occurrence, Size of Huaibei soybean to carry out the impact of acid rain zoning. The results showed that since 2007, the frequency of acid rain occurred during the growth period of soybean in Huaibei region increased gradually from west to east, and decreased year by year. During the growth period, the precipitation pH was less than 5.6 outside Huaian except for Huai’an and Xuzhou. Precipitation p H continued to decline and began to rebound in 2009. The average disaster rate of soybean affected by acid rain was 8% -20%. The average disaster rate of Xuzhou was higher than that of Huai’an. Precipitation p H and yield of each period before maturity The damage rate showed a significantly negative correlation with the non-linearity. The damage rate decreased with the increase of p H during the growth period, which was the most significant in flowering-podding and sowing-seedling stage. The risk partition of acid rain on soybean growth was Guanyun, Guannan and Suining are the high-risk areas, while Xuzhou, Sihong and Huaian are the low-risk areas while the rest are the middle-affected areas.