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目的对朝阳市1999-2009年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发病趋势与流行因素进行分析,探讨其是否存在因果关系,为进一步掌握朝阳市HFRS的流行规律、指导防制提供可供借鉴的依据。方法将1999-2009年朝阳市HFRS发病资料分别按年龄、性别、职业、季节、年降雨量、朝阳市主要农产品高粱、玉米、谷子的年产量进行归类和运用统计软件进行相关分析。结果朝阳市10年来HFRS流行特点,年龄分布男性占发病总数的75.48%(782/1036),20～50岁年龄组人群占发病总数的79.92%(828/1036),农民发病构成比为71.72%(743/1036),揭示出朝阳市HFRS发病以男性、20～50岁年龄组、农民为高发人群;春季为高发季节;生境因素中年降雨量的变化对HFRS疫情的波动影响不大(r=0.182,P=0.593);生物因素中HFRS发病趋势与谷子年产量相关(r=0.694,P=0.018),与高粱(r=0.475,P=0.140)、玉米(r=0.481,P=0.134)年产量不相关。结论朝阳市HFRS疫情的三间分布符合家鼠型HFRS的流行病学特征;谷子年产量与HFRS疫情波动呈正相关,与高粱、玉米年产量不相关;为做好HFRS的防控工作提供启示。
Objective To analyze the prevalence and epidemic factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Chaoyang from 1999 to 2009, and to explore whether there is a causal relationship between them. To provide a basis for further understanding of the prevalence of HFRS in Chaoyang City and guiding its prevention and treatment, . Methods The data of incidence of HFRS in Chaoyang City from 1999 to 2009 were respectively classified according to their age, sex, occupation, season, annual rainfall, annual output of main agricultural products of sorghum, corn and millet in Chaoyang City, and statistical software was used to make correlation analysis. Results The prevalence of HFRS in the past 10 years in Chaoyang City was 75.48% (782/1036) in the age distribution, 79.92% (828/1036) in the 20-50 age group and 71.72% in the peasants (743/1036), revealing that the incidence of HFRS in Chaoyang City is male, the age group of 20-50 years old and peasants are the high incidence population, and the spring is the high season. The change of the mid-term rainfall has little effect on the fluctuation of HFRS epidemic (r = 0.182, P = 0.593). The trend of HFRS in biological factors was related to the annual yield of millet (r = 0.694, P = 0.018) ) Annual production is not relevant. Conclusions The three distributions of HFRS epidemic in Chaoyang City are in line with the epidemiological characteristics of HFRS in domestic mice. The annual yield of millet is positively correlated with the fluctuation of HFRS epidemic and irrelevant to annual yield of sorghum and corn.